BACKGROUND: Approximately 80% of cervical cancer cases occur in developing countries. In Thailand, cervical cancer has been the leading cancer in females, with an incidence of 24.7 cases per 100,000 individuals per year.

OBJECTIVES: We constructed a decision model to simulate the lifetime economic impact for women in the context of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection prevention. HPV-related diseases were of interest: cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and genital warts. The two strategies used were 1) current practice and 2) prophylactic quadrivalent vaccine against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18.

METHODS: We developed a Markov simulation model to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of prophylactic HPV vaccine. Women transition through a model either healthy or developing HPV or its related diseases, or die from cervical cancer or from other causes according to transitional probabilities under the Thai health-care context. Costs from a provider perspective were obtained from King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3% annually.

RESULTS: Compared with no prophylactic HPV vaccine, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 160,649.50 baht per quality-adjusted life-year. The mortality rate was reduced by 54.8%. The incidence of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3, and genital warts was reduced by up to 55.1%.

CONCLUSION: Compared with commonly accepted standard thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, the nationwide coverage of HPV vaccination in girls is likely to be cost-effective in Thailand.